🍎 Apple's Cautious Outlook

1) AMD's Earnings 2) Match Group's Earnings, 3) Apple's Earnings, and more!

Happy Friday!

The weekend has arrived. Here are some key data bites you should know: 

  • X told employees that the company is worth approximately $19B, down from the $44B that Elon Musk paid last year.

  • WeWork dropped by 40% this week after reports of the company’s plans to file for bankruptcy.

  • The Fed maintained the federal funds rate between 5.25% - 5.5% in its latest meeting.

  • Moderna shares slid after the company took a $3.1B loss to write down excess Covid shots.

  • The U.S. Treasury plans to borrow $776B in Q4, down from $1.01T borrowed in the previous quarter.

In today’s newsletter:

  • 🦾 AMD’s Earnings Visualized

  • 💋 Match Group’s Earnings Visualized

  • 🍎 Apple’s Earnings Visualized

Let’s dive right in!

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🦾 AMD’s Earnings Visualized

AMD surpassed third-quarter earnings expectations, reporting $5.8B in revenue and an EPS of $0.70, but projected a Q4 revenue of $6.1B, missing the anticipated $6.4B. Despite trailing Nvidia in the AI chip sector, AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, remains optimistic, highlighting the potential of their new data center chip, the MI300, to boost their market share. While the company faced a dip in gaming and embedded segment revenues, Su emphasized that AMD's focus in 2024 will be on AI and data centers to drive long-term growth.

Although the data center segment reported a steady $1.6B sales, AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, projected data center GPU revenue to reach $400M in Q4 and over $2B in 2024, outpacing prior expectations. The company has returned 68.43% year-to-date.

💋 Match Group’s Earnings Visualized

Match Group, the owner of the largest portfolio of online dating services, reported earnings on 10/31, and investors weren’t happy, with shares dropping over 15% since the report.

Match Group reported third-quarter earnings per share of $0.57, surpassing the analysts' expectation of $0.54. Their revenue stood at $881.6M, slightly higher than the predicted $880M. However, they projected Q4 sales between $855M - $865M, below the $894M anticipated by analysts.

Economic uncertainties have made U.S. consumers cautious about spending on discretionary items like dating app subscriptions, affecting Match's portfolio. While Tinder, Match's leading brand, increased its revenue by 7% last year, its main competitor, Bumble, grew at double that rate.

In response, Match has introduced new features, including weekly subscription plans and enhanced engagement tools. Tinder also launched a $499 per month invite-only service with exclusive benefits.

Lastly, Match settled with Alphabet over claims of Google Play’s unlawful policies, providing Match with more favorable conditions on Google Play and returning $40M to Match for unpaid service fees during the dispute.

🍎 Apple’s Earnings Visualized

Apple surpassed earnings expectations with $1.46 EPS on $89.5B revenue against the forecasted $1.39 EPS and $89.3B revenue, but projected declines in key product categories caused its stock to drop. Despite record iPhone and services sales, Apple anticipates a cautious outlook for the current quarter with a notable slowdown in Mac, iPad, and Wearables growth.

This was the company’s fourth consecutive quarter of declining sales, with revenue falling year-over-year due to a tough Chinese market, where it faces economic headwinds and stiff competition from Huawei. While Apple has surprisingly gained some market share in the country, sales dropped as government preferences challenge Apple.

Apple indicated that its holiday quarter revenue will remain flat compared to last year, below expectations of a 5% growth, causing the stock to decline. Amidst this, CEO Tim Cook highlighted significant investments in generative AI, signaling future product enhancements centered around the technology.

💻 Mac Refresh. Apple $AAPL unveiled new Macs featuring advanced M3 chips, refreshed iMacs, and updated MacBook Pros, with select models available from November 7th. [TV]

🧸 2Y Bear. Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller has bought significant bullish positions in two-year notes due to growing concerns about the economy. [BB]

✈️ Copilot Launch. Microsoft $MSFT released a major Windows 11 update introducing Copilot, a chatbot similar to ChatGPT, along with other enhancements. [CNBC]

📲 Meta Halts Ads. Meta $META will halt ads for European users under 18 and offer adults a subscription option to use its platforms ad-free, complying with EU regulations. [WSJ]

🛒 Walmart V2. Walmart $WMT is investing $9B to modernize 1,400 stores, adding features like "dollar shops" and expanded pharmacy areas. [YF]

Other Notable Companies That Reported Earnings This Week:

  • MercadoLibre’s ($MELI) Q3 net profit soared, exceeding expectations due to robust revenue growth across all markets, led by strong performance in Brazil. [R], [YF]

    • 🟢 EPS $7.16 Beats $5.85 Estimate

    • 🟢 Sales $3.76B Beats $3.57B Estimate

  • PayPal ($PYPL) Q3 results beat expectations, signaling a potential turnaround with a new CFO appointment and an uplifted full-year earnings forecast. [B]

    • 🟢 EPS $1.30 Beats $1.23 Estimate

    • ⚪️ Sales $7.4B Meets $7.4B Estimate

  • Starbucks ($SBUX) exceeded earnings expectations with strong U.S. sales driven by demand for its seasonal drinks, continuing growth despite global challenges. [CNBC]

    • 🟢 EPS $1.06 Beats $0.97 Estimate

    • 🟢 Sales $9.37B Beats $9.29B Estimate

  • Airbnb ($ABNB) surpassed earnings estimates with robust international growth but warned of a volatile travel outlook. [IBD]

    • 🟢 EPS $6.63 Beats $2.11 Estimate

    • 🟢 Sales $3.4B Beats $3.37B Estimate

  • Palantir ($PLTR) soared after reporting its highest-ever quarterly profit, driven by strong demand for its new AI products. [BB], [CNBC]

    • 🟢 EPS $0.07 Beats $0.06 Estimate

    • 🟢 Sales $558M Beats $556.1M Estimate

All of the companies that are reporting earnings next week can be viewed here.

Major Trades Published 10/30 - 11/2

Buys

  • CVB Financial ($CVBF)

    • Insider: George Borba (Director)

      • # of Shares Purchased: 212,000

      • $ Amount: $3,358,589

      • SEC Forms: [1]

  • Barnes Group ($B)

    • Insider: Thomas Hook (CEO)

      • # of Shares Purchased: 120,473

      • $ Amount: $2,525,190

      • SEC Forms: [1], [2]

  • Intel ($INTC)

    • Insider: Pat Gelsinger (CEO)

      • # of Shares Purchased: 6,775

      • $ Amount: $249,333

      • SEC Forms: [1]

Sells

  • AutoZone ($AZO)

    • Insider: Preston Frazer (Senior VP)

      • # of Shares Sold: 18,514

      • $ Amount: $45,736,730

      • SEC Forms: [1], [2]

  • Unity ($U)

    • Insider: David Helgason (Director)

      • # of Shares Sold: 643,365

      • $ Amount: $16,193,439

      • SEC Forms: [1]

  • Visa ($V)

    • Insider: Alfred Kelly Jr. (Executive Chairman)

      • # of Shares Sold: 40,000

      • $ Amount: $9,445,600

      • SEC Forms: [1]

  • Snap ($SNAP)

    • Insider: Robert Murphy (CTO)

      • # of Shares Sold: 1,000,000

      • $ Amount: $9,048,100

      • SEC Forms: [1]

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Disclosure: I own shares of Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), and PayPal ($PYPL)

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