📊 Biggest Winners In U.S. Trade

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Happy Monday!

Concerns about an economic slowdown keep creeping up.

On Wednesday, ADP reported that private employers added just 77,000 jobs in February—well below the 148,000 estimate.

• That’s nearly 50% fewer jobs than expected.

ADP’s Chief Economist noted that their data “…suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.”

That same uncertainty is reflected at the Fed, with Jerome Powell stating that future policy decisions remain unclear and rate cuts will have to wait until they have greater clarity.

• Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4%, signaling further softening in the labor market.

Sentiment Survey: We’re approaching the end of Q1, and I’m curious—how is everyone feeling about the market as we near the first quarter mark of the year?

I’ll share the results in the next issue so you can see how everyone voted.

Some key data bites from this week that you should know:

• Ray Dalio said the US could face a major debt crisis within 3 years.

• IRS plans to cut up to 45,000 workers, or half its workforce.

• Nasdaq plans to offer 24-hour trading, five days a week.

• Citadel notched $9.7B in full-year trading revenue in 2024.

• Trump Admin is considering selling 443 federal properties.

• Tesla’s shipments from China reportedly fell 49% YoY.

• Anthropic closed a $3.5B funding round at a $61.5B valuation.

• Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is forecasting a Q1 GDP decline of 2.8%.

• Okta bookings topped $1B in a single period for the first time ever.

• Tech Giants have already pledged over $1T in US investment.

• TSMC will invest $100B to expand chip manufacturing in US.

• TikTok owner launched a new share repurchase program at $315B valuation.

• Global government borrowing on track to hit record $12.3T.

• BlackRock will buy two Panama Canal ports in a $19B deal.

• Wrexham AFC is up 4,900% since Ryan Reynolds bought it.

• Klarna is set to IPO and raise $1B at a $15B valuation.

• Microsoft makes up 62% of CoreWeave’s revenue.

• Walgreens is going private for $10B after 98 years public.

In today’s newsletter:

• 🌎 Biggest Winners In U.S. Trade

• 🛢️ Saudi Aramco’s Insane Profits

• 🇪🇺 Most Valuable European Companies

• 🍎 Apple’s Stagnant Empire

• ↻ New S&P 500 Reshuffle

Let’s jump right in.

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Tariff season is officially here.

On Tuesday, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico.

• Canadian energy got a slight break with a 10% rate, while tariffs on Chinese goods doubled to 20%.

• In response, Canada, Mexico, and China all implemented retaliatory tariffs.

A few days later, Trump issued exemptions covering roughly half of Mexico’s exports to the U.S. and over a third of Canada’s—specifically for goods that comply with the North American trade deal.

• Automakers were also included in these exemptions, following concerns from industry leaders about the potential catastrophic effects.

Today, several countries run a trade surplus with the U.S.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2024, the U.S. had a $295B trade deficit with China, followed by $182B with Mexico, and $123B with Vietnam.

• Overall, the U.S. trade deficit in goods reached $1.2T last year.

Trump’s end goal with tariffs?

• Shrink the trade deficit, revive U.S. manufacturing, generate a new revenue stream for the government, and use tariffs as a negotiating tool.

There’s big.

Then there’s Saudi Aramco big.

The oil giant posted $106B in net income for 2024 on $437B in revenue.

• That profit alone is comparable to the combined profits of ExxonMobil, PetroChina, Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies.

• And that’s after a 12.4% YoY decline, driven by muted oil prices and lower production levels.

One key callout from its annual report?

• Saudi Aramco plans to cut its dividend payout to $85B in 2025.

• This represents a 40% drop from last year’s record $124B payout.

The move aims to ease pressure on its balance sheet, which recently slipped into a net debt position.

But it comes at a cost.

• Saudi Arabia’s government, heavily reliant on Aramco’s dividends, will have less cash to help reduce its budget deficit.

Tariffs aren’t the only thing dominating headlines this week.

Europe is too.

President Trump recently announced the U.S. would be suspending all military aid to Ukraine, following a feisty conversation with President Zelensky.

The European Union’s response?

• An $840B “ReArm Europe” plan designed to significantly boost military spending for the continent’s collective defense.

• This has helped boost the STOXX Europe Aerospace and Defense Index, which has skyrocketed 35% so far this year.

Meanwhile, investor demand for Russian-related assets has been increasing. 

• Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are offering ruble-linked derivative contracts as a way to profit from the currency’s surge. 

• The Russian ruble has climbed 26% this year, based on hope that sanctions relief may be a part of the deal with the US.

Taking a look at the largest companies in Europe, the landscape looks very different from the Big Tech-dominated U.S.

• Obesity drug kingpin Novo Nordisk takes the crown, followed by luxury empire LVMH and ERP software giant SAP.

• The rest of the top seven span industries from semiconductors to food processing, reflecting Europe’s broader market composition.

Few companies command the brand loyalty, recognition, and sheer admiration of Apple.

• A cornerstone of the S&P 500, it remains a favorite among investors and fund managers.

• At a $3.6T market cap, Apple is already a massive giant.

But one has to wonder—how much growth is left?

Over the past three years, revenue has grown at just a 1.5% CAGR, with diluted EPS trailing at 1.4%, per FinChat.

• Meanwhile, Apple trades at one of its most expensive valuations ever—38x trailing earnings.

Despite the premium, forward estimates project earnings growth of 10.5% over the next two years.

This week, Apple unveiled a slate of new products, including:

• The M3 Ultra chip, its fastest silicon yet.

• A new Mac Studio, which Apple calls its most powerful Mac ever.

• An upgraded MacBook Air, now with a lower starting price.

• A refreshed iPad Air.

Are these releases innovative enough to reignite Apple’s growth?

The quarterly S&P 500 rebalance has arrived.

On Friday after market close, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced new additions to the S&P 500.

Joining the index:
✅ TKO Holdings (parent company of WWE & UFC)
✅ Williams-Sonoma
✅ DoorDash
✅ Expand Energy

They’ll be replacing:
❌ BorgWarner
❌ FMC Corp
❌ Teleflex
❌ Celanese

These changes take effect before the market opens on March 24, 2025.

Several well-known names were considered potential candidates for inclusion, but didn’t make the cut.

• Interactive Brokers, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Blue Owl Capital were among them.

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Notable Companies Reporting Earnings Week of March 10th, 2025:

I use EarningsHub to track earnings, estimates, and receive AI summaries of investor calls.

If you’d like an all-in-one earnings tool and see all other companies reporting, I definitely recommend you check it out!

Buys

• Josh Gottheimer (D)

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Purchased: $1M - $5M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $230; Expires 1/16/2026

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Purchased: $1M - $5M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $235; Expires 1/16/2026

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Purchased: $1M - $5M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $240; Expires 12/19/2025

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Purchased: $500K - $1M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $240; Expires 12/19/2025

• Mark Green (R)

  • Company: VanEck Gold Trust ETF ($OUNZ)

    • Amount Purchased: $115K - $300K

• Dave McCormick (R)

  • Company: Bitwise Bitcoin ETF ($BITB)

    • Amount Purchased: $65K - $150K

Sells

• Josh Gottheimer (D)

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Sold: $1M - $5M

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Sold: $1M - $5M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $320; Expires 6/18/2026

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Sold: $500K - $1M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $325; Expires 6/18/2026

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Sold: $250K - $500K

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $325; Expires 6/18/2026

• Mark Green (R)

  • Company: NGL Energy Partners ($NGL)

    • Amount Sold: $115K - $300K

Buys

• Permian Resources Corp ($PR)

  • Insider: William Quinn (Director)

    • # of Shares Purchased: 500,000

    • $ Amount: $6,536,600

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• Aurinia Pharmaceuticals ($AUPH)

  • Insider: Kevin Tang (Director)

    • # of Shares Purchased: 748,038

    • $ Amount: $5,963,304

    • SEC Forms: [1]

Sells

• Palo Alto Networks ($PANW)

  • Insider: Nikesh Arora (CEO)

    • # of Shares Sold: 718,449

    • $ Amount: $132,772,054

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• DoorDash ($DASH)

  • Insider: Stanley Tang (Director)

    • # of Shares Sold: 263,490

    • $ Amount: $52,909,496

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• Tesla ($TSLA)

  • Insider: Robyn Denholm (Director)

    • # of Shares Sold: 112,390

    • $ Amount: $33,672,976

    • SEC Forms: [1]

🤝 Review of the Week