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📉 Goldman Sachs Predicts 20% Recession Risk Next Year [GS]

• Goldman Sachs Research forecasts a lower recession risk as positive indicators like easing financial conditions and a rebounding housing market suggest continued economic growth, albeit slower.

• Encouraging inflation data and factors pointing towards ongoing disinflation, such as falling used car prices and rent inflation, support this outlook. Despite concerns over the U.S.'s inverted yield curve, economists argue the current cycle is different due to a lower term premium and a potential path to Federal Reserve easing via lower inflation.

💵 US Dollar Dips Below 1 Year Low [BB]

• The US dollar is facing its worst slump since November, leading investors and strategists to predict a significant turning point for the world's primary reserve currency. This shift is attributed to signs of waning inflation and speculation that the Fed will soon cease raising interest rates, with market consensus foreseeing potential rate cuts by 2024.

• A prolonged decline in the dollar could lower import costs for developing nations, aiding their inflation issues. This shift could boost currencies like the yen. The US' twin deficits and the "dollar smile theory" are seen as key factors influencing the dollar's future trajectory.

📖 Senators Introduce Bipartisan Ban On Stock Ownership [CNN]

• Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Josh Hawley are presenting a bipartisan bill to ban members of the executive and legislative branches, along with their families, from trading individual stocks.

• The bill also seeks to prohibit blind trusts, enhance filing transparency, and impose harsher penalties for violations. The senators argue that politicians should prioritize public interest over personal profit.

💸 The Fed Launches Instant Payments Service [RT]

• The U.S. Federal Reserve's "FedNow" service, designed to modernize payments by enabling real-time fund transfers, has launched with 41 banks, aiming to provide a competitive edge for its users and align the U.S. with countries already offering similar services.

🇨🇳 Chinese Reveals Weak Economic Data [RT]

• in Q2 2023, China's economic recovery has slowed, with year-on-year GDP growth of 6.3%, falling short of the anticipated 7.3%. This downturn raises doubts about China meeting its 5% growth target for 2023 and puts pressure on policymakers due to rising youth unemployment.

• Retail sales growth decreased significantly, and despite a small increase in industrial output, overall demand remains weak. Private investment has also shrunk, reflecting low business confidence.

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