📊 Is The Market Overvalued?

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Happy Sunday!

You’ve probably had enough of friends or family members bragging about their Bitcoin gains.

This past week, Bitcoin crossed $100,000 for the first time ever, while Crypto trading volume hit a record $10T.

The crypto dream is alive and well, and larger corporate adoption might be next.

Crypto billionaire Michael Saylor recently gave a 3-minute pitch to Microsoft on why they should adopt Bitcoin.

Let’s see where this leads!

Some key data bites from this week that you should know:

• U.S. consumers spent $13.3B on Cyber Monday, up 7.3% YoY.

• SpaceX is in talks to sell insider shares at a $350B valuation.

• Most expensive U.S. property is on sale for $295M, and at risk of flooding.

• Meta is reportedly planning to build a $10B subsea cable spanning the world.

• Meta AI now has nearly 600M monthly active users.

• OpenAI has reached 300M weekly active users.

• Disney increased its annual dividend by 33%.

• AMC tanked after disclosing plans to sell up to 50M shares of stock.

• Number of Fidelity 401(k) millionaires increased to record 544,000 in Q3.

• Donald Trump proposed 100% tariffs on BRICS nations shifting from the U.S. dollar.

• Big Tech’s market cap has soared $8T since ChatGPT launched.

• AT&T has pledged to return more than $40B to shareholders over the next 3 years.

In today’s newsletter:

• 🥈 Super Micro Still Among The Best

• 🧱 Salesforce Is Building An Empire

• 🚪 Intel CEO Retires

• 🌯 Chipotle Raises Its Prices

• 🫰 Is The Market Overvalued?

Let’s jump right in.

📣 Presented By Ryse

This smart home company grew 200% month-over-month…

No, it’s not Ring or Nest—it’s RYSE, a leader in smart shade automation, and you can invest for just $1.75 per share.

RYSE’s innovative SmartShades have already transformed how people control their window coverings, bringing automation to homes without the need for expensive replacements. With 10 fully granted patents and a game-changing Amazon court judgment protecting their tech, RYSE is building a moat in a market projected to grow 23% annually.

This year alone, RYSE has seen revenue grow by 200% month-over-month and expanded into 127 Best Buy locations, with international markets on the horizon. Plus, with partnerships with major retailers like Home Depot and Lowe’s already in the works, they’re just getting started.

Now is your chance to invest in the company disrupting home automation—before they hit their next phase of explosive growth. But don’t wait; this opportunity won’t last long.

Invest today before their share price changes next week.

What’s happening with Super Micro?

The stock surged 29% on Monday after an independent committee hired by the board found no evidence of wrongdoing at the company.

• Trouble began in August when Super Micro delayed filing its annual report, causing the stock to plunge.

• The situation worsened in October when EY resigned as its auditor, leaving the company scrambling.

For the most recent quarter, only preliminary data was released.

Super Micro has since hired BDO to review its filings, but BDO has yet to certify them.

On Friday, the company secured a critical extension to file its 10-K by February 25th, ensuring it stays listed on the Nasdaq.

Despite the chaos, Super Micro is still up 54% this year, though it’s down 63% from its 2024 high.

• And here’s the kicker—it’s still the second-best performing stock in the S&P 500 over the past five years.

CRM giant Salesforce jumped 9% this week despite a mixed earnings report.

• For those unfamiliar, Salesforce provides tools for businesses to manage customer relationships, sales, and marketing.

In Q3, adjusted EPS missed estimates, coming in at $2.41 vs. $2.44 expected.

• However, revenue beat expectations, reaching $9.44B, up 8% YoY, compared to $9.34B projected.

Looking ahead, the company’s Q4 revenue guidance came in at $10B at the midpoint, narrowly missing the $10.05B estimate.

• Adjusted EPS guidance of $2.60 also fell short of analysts' $2.65 target.

So, why the rally? Investors are bullish on Agentforce, Salesforce’s autonomous AI product designed to support employees and customers.

• CEO Marc Benioff said, “The rise of autonomous AI agents is revolutionizing global labor…With Agentforce, we’re leading the future, unleashing a new era of digital labor for every business and industry.”

Intel shareholders just can’t catch a break.

• Shares plunged nearly 16% this week after Intel announced the “retirement” of CEO Pat Gelsinger.

• However, reports from outlets like Reuters suggest he was actually forced out by the board.

Since Gelsinger took over in 2021, Intel has lost a whopping $150B in market cap.

• And while shareholders have endured steep losses during his tenure, Gelsinger will be walking away with over $10M in severance pay.

Intel now ranks as the second-worst performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2024.

Your burrito just got pricier.

• Chipotle announced a 2% nationwide menu price hike this week, aiming to offset inflation and rising ingredient costs.

In the most recent quarter, the company narrowly missed comparable sales estimates, posting 6% growth versus the expected 6.3%.

Leadership changes have also made headlines.

• Back in August, former CEO Brian Niccol abruptly left to join Starbucks as its new CEO.

• Recently, Chipotle named interim CEO Scott Boatwright as its permanent leader.

Through it all, Chipotle has maintained steady growth.

• Since 2001, revenue has climbed consistently—except for a dip in 2016 following the aftermath of its E. coli outbreak.

• Over the last 12 months, revenue hit a record $11B.

Can anything stop the S&P 500?

• The index has surged nearly 30% this year, crossing 6,090.

But this rally comes with a warning sign: the Shiller PE ratio, or CAPE ratio, is at 39, a level last seen during the dot-com bubble.

The CAPE ratio measures stock prices against inflation-adjusted earnings over 10 years.

• This metric is important because it smooths out short-term earnings fluctuations, offering a clearer picture of long-term market valuation and potential risks.

• Historically, high CAPE levels have often preceded periods of lower returns or increased volatility.

Compared to its historical average of 17, today’s level suggests the market is considerably overvalued.

High interest rates would usually weigh on valuations, but optimism around tech, strong earnings, and growth expectations seem to be keeping prices elevated.

While the CAPE is an important signal, it’s not the full story.

• Markets often defy traditional metrics, and this rally might still have room to run, especially if companies continue to deliver strong earnings against high expectations.

Notable Companies Reporting Earnings This Week:

Here’s what I will be watching this week:

• Monday: Oracle $ORCL, MongoDB $MDB, C3.ai $AI

• Tuesday: AutoZone $AZO, GameStop $GME

• Wednesday: Adobe $ADBE

• Thursday: Broadcom $AVGO, Costco $COST, RH $RH

I use EarningsHub to track earnings, estimates, and receive AI summaries of investor calls.

• If you’d like an all-in-one earnings tool and see all other companies reporting, I definitely recommend you check it out!

📣 Presented By Ryse

This Smart Home Company is Growing 200% Month-Over-Month

Ever thought the smartest part of your home could be your window shades?

Meet RYSE, the company transforming ordinary blinds into cutting-edge smart home devices. With 10 granted patents, a major win against copycat sellers on Amazon, and products already featured in 127 Best Buy locations, RYSE is scaling rapidly in a market growing 23% annually.

And they’re just getting started. With 200% month-over-month revenue growth, international expansion on the horizon, and partnerships with retail giants like Home Depot and Lowe’s, RYSE is poised to redefine home automation.

Now, for just $1.75 per share, you can invest in this fast-growing company and be part of the smart home revolution.

Don’t miss out—invest today before the round closes!

Buys

• Josh Gottheimer (D)

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Purchased: $1M - $5M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $230; Expires 6/20/2025

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Purchased: $1M - $5M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $235; Expires 6/20/2025

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Purchased: $1M - $5M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $240; Expires 6/20/2025

• Markwayne Mullin (R)

  • Company: Invesco Variable Rate Investment Grade ETF ($VRIG)

    • Amount Purchased: $265K - $550K

• Michael Collins (R)

  • Company: Ski Mask Dog ($SKI) (Crypto)

    • Amount Purchased: $2K - $30K

Sells

• Josh Gottheimer (D)

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Sold: $1M - $5M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $230; Expires 9/19/2025

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Sold: $1M - $5M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $240; Expires 9/19/2025

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Sold: $1M - $5M

    • Description: Call options; Strike price $240; Expires 9/19/2025

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Sold: $2K - $30K

Buys

• Biglari Holdings ($BH)

  • Insider: Sardar Biglari (Chairman & CEO)

    • # of Shares Purchased: 2,941

    • $ Amount: $899,847

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• Marathon Petroleum Corp ($MPC)

  • Insider: Jeffrey Campbell (Director)

    • # of Shares Purchased: 6,000

    • $ Amount: $897,644

    • SEC Forms: [1]

Sells

• Palantir ($PLTR)

  • Insider: Shyam Sankar (Officer)

    • # of Shares Sold: 5,250,000

    • $ Amount: $367,910,550

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• Elastic N.V. ($ESTC)

  • Insider: Steven Schuurman (Director)

    • # of Shares Sold: 2,377,400

    • $ Amount: $266,149,930

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• Apollo Global Management ($APO)

  • Insider: Scott Kleinman (Co-President)

    • # of Shares Sold: 422,793

    • $ Amount: $73,427,012

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• Robinhood Markets ($HOOD)

  • Insider: Meyer Malka (Director)

    • # of Shares Sold: 1,676,633

    • $ Amount: $68,550,854

    • SEC Forms: [1]

🤝 Review of the Week