💉 Ozempic Empire

1) Novo Nordisk Surpasses Tesla 2) Earnings Outlook, 3) The Fall of Victoria's Secret, and more!

Author

Carbon Finance
March 12, 2024

Happy Tuesday.

Hope you all had a refreshing weekend! The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release the February CPI this morning at 8:30 AM EST.

Headline inflation is expected to rise by 3.1% year-over-year based on economists surveyed by FactSet.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has urged the Fed to wait until after June before making any decision to cut rates.

Some key data bites you should know: 

In today’s newsletter:

  • 💉 Novo Nordisk Surpasses Tesla

  • 💵 Earnings Outlook

  • 👙 The Fall Of Victoria’s Secret

Let’s dive right in!

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💉 Novo Nordisk Surpasses Tesla

Novo Nordisk just hit a major milestone.

The Danish pharmaceutical giant, known for its blockbuster weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, has reached new heights, crossing an all-time high.

Now standing as the world's 12th most valuable company by market cap, Novo Nordisk has now even eclipsed Tesla's towering valuation.

This surge in value comes on the heels of promising early clinical trial data for Amycretin, a new weight loss drug in the company’s pipeline.

Phase 1 results of the drug shows higher efficacy than both Wegovy and Ozempic, with findings indicating 13.1% weight loss after 12 weeks.

Shares jumped 10% on the news, and the company is now up by nearly 90% over the last year.

💵 Earnings Outlook

How much would you pay for $1 of profit?

This is what the PE ratio measures, which tells you how much more you're paying for a stock compared to its earnings.

While useful, it doesn't always capture the growth potential of fast-growing companies.

Enter the Forward PE Ratio, which considers next year’s earnings estimates to better reflect a company’s growth prospects.

Using this ratio, I’ve put together a collection of 12 popular stocks and as you can see, the variation is striking.

For instance, PayPal's forward PE shows investors are paying $10.60 for $1 of next year's profit, versus $41.29 for Costco.

If it goes without saying, it's crucial not to rely solely on the Forward PE Ratio.

Since it's based on estimates, there’s always a chance predictions might miss the mark, so use it as just one tool among many in your arsenal.

👙 The Fall Of Victoria’s Secret

Victoria’s Secret saw a steep plunge last week, with its stock declining roughly 30% following their Q4 2023 earnings report.

This downturn marked the company's worst day on the stock market.

The sell-off was triggered by the company's forecast for full-year 2024 net sales, which are expected to be around $6B.

This prediction represents a single digit drop from 2023, disappointing investors who were hoping for a turnaround.

Since its spin-off from L Brands in August 2021, the stock has now tumbled nearly 70%, reflecting a tough period for the renowned lingerie brand.

📣 Trump vs Meta. Trump calls Facebook $META the ‘enemy of the people’ - CNBC

🇯🇵 Recession Dodge. Japan narrowly misses a recession as Q4 GDP is revised upwards - R

🛢️ Oil Profits. Saudi Aramco announced $121B profit in 2023, it’s 2nd highest ever - PBS

🏋️‍♂️ Luxury Gym Refinance. Equinox has raised $1.8B to refinance $1.2B in debt - FT

Notable Companies Reporting Earnings This Week:

  • Monday (3/11):

    • Oracle $ORCL, Asana $ASAN

  • Tuesday (3/12):

    • On Holding $ONON, Manchester United $MANU

  • Wednesday (3/13):

    • Lennar $LEN, Dollar Tree $DLTR, Williams-Sonoma $WSM, UiPath $PATH

  • Thursday (3/14):

    • Adobe $ADBE, Dollar General $DG, Ulta Beauty $ULTA

  • Friday (3/15):

    • Soho House $SHCO

All of the companies that are reporting earnings this week can be viewed here.

Major Trades Published Since 3/5. Trades may be those of family member. [Source: 2iQ]

Buys:

  • Josh Gottheimer (D)

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Purchased: $1M - $5M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $165, Expires 01/17/2025

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Purchased: $1M - $5M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $165, Expires 01/17/2025

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Purchased: $1M - $5M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $165, Expires 01/17/2025

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Purchased: $1M - $5M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $170, Expires 01/17/2025

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Purchased: $1M - $5M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $170, Expires 01/17/2025

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Purchased: $500K - $1M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $165, Expires 01/17/2025

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Purchased: $500K - $1M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $170, Expires 01/17/2025

Sells:

  • Josh Gottheimer (R)

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Sold: $1M - $5M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $220, Expires 06/20/2025

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Sold: $1M - $5M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $230, Expires 06/20/2025

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Sold: $1M - $5M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $235, Expires 06/20/2025

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Sold: $1M - $5M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $240, Expires 06/20/2025

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Sold: $1M - $5M

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Sold: $500K - $1M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $225, Expires 06/20/2025

    • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

      • Amount Sold: $500K - $1M

      • Description: Call Options, Strike Price $225, Expires 06/20/2025

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🤝 Review of the Week

Disclosure: I own shares of $PYPL, $GOOG, $AAPL, $MSFT

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