📊 Stocks With High China Risk

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It’s Sunday.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently shared a recession is a likely outcome of Trump’s tariffs.

BlackRock’s Larry Fink went a step further, saying we may already be in one, and that the paused tariffs will extend uncertainty.

• Still, he clarified that the U.S. is not in a financial crisis.

However, not all leaders share the same view.

• Apollo CEO Marc Rowan argued that tariffs are necessary, calling today’s trade policies outdated and rooted in post–World War II frameworks.

When three of the biggest voices in business weigh in, the market listens.

But the mixed signals only add to the endless noise and fear.

While forecasting recessions becomes common during moments like this, accuracy remains elusive.

• As Peter Lynch once said, “If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.”

Some key data bites from this week that you should know:

• Evercore says these 38 stocks will outperform over the next year.

• Bearish investor Mark Spitznagel predicts market will go down 80%.

• Pentagon will cancel $5.1B in contracts with Accenture, Deloitte, and others.

• DOGE will save $150B from federal budget in FY 2026, below $1T estimate.

• Intel’s new CEO is invested in over 600 Chinese firms.

• Global Art Sales fell 12% to $57.5B in 2024.

• Used Tesla Listings jumped 67% YoY in March.

• Broadcom announced a new $10B share buyback.

• TSMC’s quarterly sales increased 42% on AI demand.

• Google’s AI answers have slashed traffic to many publishers by 70% or more.

• US Government increased medicare payments to insurers by over $25B.

• Taiwan activated $15B stock stabilization fund to prop up market.

• Bill Ackman’s hedge fund is down 14% YTD.

• Prada will officially acquire Versace in a $1.4B deal.

• Alphabet reaffirmed its $75B CapEx spending plan in 2025.

• Blackstone plans to spend $11B on European property.

• a16z is raising $20B for an AI venture fund.

In today’s newsletter:

• 📈 Warren Buffett Is Built Different

• 🟢 Nasdaq’s 2nd Best Day Ever

• 🇨🇳 Stocks With High China Risk

• 🍎 Apple’s Sharpest Fall

• 🔥 Core Inflation Falls Under 3%

Let’s jump right in.

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You can never count out the GOAT.

While many of the world’s richest have seen their net worths tumble during the recent market selloff, Warren Buffett is still in the green.

• According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Buffett’s net worth is up an astounding $21B this year.

• That’s largely thanks to his company Berkshire Hathaway, which is up 16% YTD, well ahead of the S&P 500’s 9% decline.

And with rising volatility, Buffett’s $334B cash pile is looking better by the day.

• It puts him in prime position to deploy capital and take advantage of any opportunities that pop up.

On Wednesday Morning, President Trump posted on Truth Social: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”

• Hours later, he walked back his Liberation Day plan, pausing previously announced reciprocal tariffs for 90 days and lowering country-specific tariffs to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners.

Markets surged on the news.

• The Nasdaq jumped 12.2%, marking its second-best day in history.

• The S&P 500 posted its eighth-best day ever, and its strongest since 2008.

Trump’s post raised questions about potential insider trading and market manipulation, though White House officials said the intent was simply to reassure the public.

It’s worth noting that while the rally followed a considerable market decline, it serves as a reminder of why reacting emotionally to sell-offs can be costly.

• According to JPMorgan Asset Management, 7 of the market’s 10 best days over the past 20 years occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days.

• Missing just those 10 best days? Research from Hartford Funds shows it would cut your total returns in half.

The only country left out from Trump’s walk-back? China.

The trade war between the U.S. and China is now in full swing.

As of now, China has imposed tariffs of 125% on US imports, following the White House’s announcement that Chinese goods face at least a 145% tariff.

• The escalation began on February 1, when the US imposed an initial 10% tariff on Chinese imports. 

• China responded with 15% tariffs on US coal, liquefied natural gas, and other products.

Since then, both sides have steadily raised tariffs, including multiple rounds of back and forth escalations. 

• CNN has a nifty visualization recapping every major action taken between the two countries.

Neither country appears ready to back down.

If things get messy, companies with large exposure to China face a huge risk.

Goldman Sachs compiled a list of companies with high revenue exposure to the Greater China region, based on 2023 filings. 

• As we see from the visual, that includes notable chipmakers like AI kingpin Nvidia.

• It's also important to callout the list is based only on revenue, not manufacturing or supply chain exposure, which could also be vulnerable if tensions continue to soar.

If there’s one company with major manufacturing exposure to China, it’s Apple.

• Evercore ISI estimates that 90% of iPhones are assembled there.

• Roughly 55% of Macs and 80% of iPads are also produced in China.

The ongoing U.S.–China trade war has undeniably alarmed Apple investors.

The iPhone maker recently experienced its largest drawdown in over five years.

• At one point, shares had fallen 33% from their December 2024 peak before rebounding.

• Analyst Dan Ives estimated that if tariffs remained, a U.S.-assembled iPhone could cost around $3,500.

In response to the rising escalations, Apple reportedly began flying 600 tons of iPhones into the U.S. to stockpile inventory and accelerated plans source more iPhones from India.

But late Friday brought a major relief for global tech manufacturers.

• The Trump administration announced that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be exempt from reciprocal tariffs.

• These exemptions cover nearly $390B in U.S. imports, with $101B coming from China, according to Bloomberg.

While this is likely to spark a short-term rally, the exemption is temporary, and recent developments show how quickly things can shift.

Is the war against inflation finally nearing an end?

March’s Core CPI came in at a 2.8% annual rate, below the 3% estimate and the lowest since March 2021.

• Month-over-month, it rose just 0.1%.

• Core CPI is often preferred by policymakers because it excludes volatile food and energy prices, offering a clearer view of underlying long term inflation trends.

Overall CPI also cooled to 2.4% YoY, below the 2.6% forecast.

While this gives the Fed more confidence that inflation is easing, it’s unlikely to prompt any immediate rate cuts.

• Keep in mind, though, that this data only covers up to March and does not reflect the impact of recent trade policy changes.

📣 Presented By RYSE

Is this startup the next billion dollar buyout?

Imagine investing in Ring before its $1.2B buyout by Amazon

Or Nest, before Google's $3.2B acquisition.

By the time we hear about industry-changing companies, it’s usually too late. But right now, there’s a smart home startup making their way to homes in America. This tech startup is RYSE, and unlike Ring, you can still invest before their $1.90 round closes May 30.

Like how Ring disrupted home security, this company is revolutionizing smart blinds & shades.

With $10M+ in revenue, 200% YoY growth, and sold in 127 Best Buy stores, they are primed for massive expansion and forecast 5X in revenue this year.

Earn up to 25% in free shares.

_{Past performance is not indicative of future results. Email may contain forward-looking statements. See US Offering for details. Informational purposes only.}

Notable Companies Reporting Earnings Week of April 13th, 2025:

I use EarningsHub to track earnings, estimates, and receive AI summaries of investor calls.

If you’d like an all-in-one earnings tool and see all other companies reporting, I definitely recommend you check it out!

Buys

• Gil Cisneros (D)

  • Company: Unitedhealth Group ($UNH)

    • Amount Purchased: $15K - $50K

  • Company: PTC ($PTC)

    • Amount Purchased: $15K - $50K

  • Company: Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ)

    • Amount Purchased: $15K - $50K

  • Company: Ferguson ($FERG)

    • Amount Purchased: $15K - $50K

• Tony Wied (R)

  • Company: The Trade Desk ($TTD)

    • Amount Purchased: $15K - $50K

  • Company: AMD ($AMD)

    • Amount Purchased: $15K - $50K

Sells

• Kelly Morrison (D)

  • Company: Target ($TGT)

    • Amount Sold: $115K - $300K

• Greg Landsman (D)

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Sold: $100K - $250K

• Virginia Foxx (R)

  • Company: Pembina Pipeline Corp ($PBA)

    • Amount Sold: $50K - $100K

  • Company: Energy Transfer ($ET)

    • Amount Sold: $50K - $100K

Buys

• MSC Industrial Direct Co ($MSM)

  • Insider: Mitchell Jacobson (Director)

    • # of Shares Purchased: 159,193

    • $ Amount: $11,101,253

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• Asana ($ASAN)

  • Insider: Dustin Moskovitz (President, CEO, & Chair)

    • # of Shares Purchased: 675,000

    • $ Amount: $9,842,786

    • SEC Forms: [1]

Sells

• BJ’s Wholesale Club ($BJ)

  • Insider: Robert Eddy (President & CEO)

    • # of Shares Sold: 280,400

    • $ Amount: $32,051,687

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• FedEx ($FDX)

  • Insider: Frederick Smith (Executive Chairman)

    • # of Shares Sold: 123,850

    • $ Amount: $25,122,521

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• Airbnb ($ABNB)

  • Insider: Joseph Gebbia (Director)

    • # of Shares Sold: 214,285

    • $ Amount: $23,304,628

    • SEC Forms: [1]

🤝 Review of the Week