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It’s Sunday.
Most investors love chasing winners. But that’s often a mistake.
An analysis from Renaissance Macro shows that stocks that double within a short period tend to underperform over the following 3 years.
The pattern is consistent, though the severity varies.
Small caps tend to see sharper reversals, while large caps still deliver weaker forward returns, but with less extreme declines.
So, think twice before piling in after a stock has doubled. It could be a long three years.
Key Data Bites Over The Last Week:
Carbon Finance published 5 high-quality stocks to watch.
Cheapest stock in America is up 520% over the past year.
Anthropic’s revenue run-rate surpassed $30B.
Used car prices reached highest point since summer of 2023.
Gas prices jumped 21% in March, the most in 59 years.
S&P 500’s dividend yield is now at 50-year lows.
Hedge funds sold global stocks at fastest pace in 13 years.
Bill Ackman proposed buying Universal Music Group for $64B.
SpaceX posted $18.5B in revenue with $5B loss in 2025.
OpenAI is projecting $100B in ad revenue by 2030.
Taiwan Semi posted 35% revenue growth on strong AI chip demand.
Delta expects $2B hit from higher fuel costs due to Iran War.
AWS said its AI revenue run rate crossed $15B in Q1 2026.
In today’s newsletter:
🧾 The Market Is Overvalued
🏋️♀️ 7 Companies Run The S&P 500
⏱️ Never Time The Market
🩺 Most Valuable Healthcare Stocks
💼 Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Portfolio
Let’s jump right in.
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The market is expensive.
That’s at least according to the Buffett Indicator.
This measure compares the total value of U.S. stocks to the size of the U.S. economy.
Warren Buffett once called it “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand.”
He also warned that when it moves above 200%, markets are “playing with fire.”
Today, it sits at a record high figure of 215%.
At the same time, economic growth is slowing, with GDP growth in Q4 revised down to 0.5%, from an original 1.4% estimate.
That leaves a narrow path forward.
Either growth accelerates, or valuations must come down.
The market looks expensive, but it’s also highly concentrated.
Today, just 7 companies make up a third of the index, driving a large share of overall performance.
At the same time, several of the largest names have pulled back.
Over the past 6 months, Microsoft is down 28% while Meta has fallen 12%.
Despite the broader index appearing stretched, many of the Magnificent 7 now trade closer to market multiples on a forward basis, and some even below it.
The result is a market that looks expensive on the surface, but where a portion of the risk in the largest names has already been priced in.
Volatility can make the market feel unpredictable.
But the real risk is not being invested.
Missing just the 10 best days cuts returns by more than half, a difference of about $45K on a $10K investment.
And those best days are often clustered.
In recent markets, many of the biggest gains came right after selloffs tied to tariffs and geopolitical headlines.
Owning stocks on just those days would have returned about 52%, compared with roughly 12% for buying and holding, according to the Wall Street Journal.
But predicting when that relief comes is nearly impossible, and exactly what makes timing so difficult.
As Peter Lynch once said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
Private insurers just got a lifeline.
The U.S. government announced it will raise payments to Medicare Advantage plans by 2.48% on average for 2027.
That is a sharp reversal from the flat rate proposed in January, which had weighed heavily on the group.
The increase translates to more than $13B in additional funding.
Insurers will also benefit from changes to risk adjustment, bringing the total uplift to roughly 5%.
The market reacted quickly.
UnitedHealth shares ended the week 10% higher, with gains spreading across the broader insurance sector.
A 24-year-old is quietly running one of the fastest growing AI investment funds.
Leopold Aschenbrenner now manages nearly $6B, just a year after launching his firm with about $225M.
His strategy is highly concentrated in AI infrastructure.
And one of his core holdings, CoreWeave, is having a banner week.
The company surged after signing a multiyear agreement with Anthropic to supply compute, and an additional $21B deal with Meta through 2032.
These are the types of “picks and shovels” bets driving the fund’s growth.
In less than a year, assets have scaled more than 24x through new capital and performance.
📣 Presented by Intrepid Travel
What two founders learned growing a 37-year-old company
Intrepid's co-founder and CEO don't do corporate gloss. Their opening letter in the Integrated Annual Report gets into what 2025 actually required: the hard calls, the strategy reset, and how a nearly 30% growth year still came with real challenges.
🤔 Uncertain IPO↗ – OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar has indicated internally that the company may not be ready to go public in 2026.
🌃 Dimon’s Outlook↗ – Jamie Dimon published his annual letter to shareholders and called out risks in geopolitical conflicts, persistent inflation, and AI.
🎭 Satoshi Identified↗ – A New York Times investigation says it may have identified Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto.
🤖 Agent Launch↗ – Anthropic launched a product that makes it easy for users and businesses to build and deploy autonomous AI agents.
💾 Chip Ambitions↗ – Anthropic is considering designing its own AI chips.
🚀 Model Debut↗ – Meta launched Muse Spark, its first major new AI model in more than a year.
🧸 Bearish Bets↗ – Michael Burry reiterated he’s still holding bearish wagers against Palantir and Nvidia.
🕵️♂️ Legalize Secrets↗ – Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy said insider trading should be legalized to make markets more fair.
Notable Companies Reporting Earnings Week of April 12th, 2026:
Major Trades Published 4/6 - 4/10. Trades may be those of family members. [Source: Capitol Trades]
Buys
Josh Gottheimer (D)
Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)
Amount Purchased: $500K - $1M
Description: Call options; Strike price $320; Expires 06/18/2026
Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)
Amount Purchased: $50K - $100K
Description: Call options; Strike price $325; Expires 06/18/2026
Ro Khanna (D)
Company: Bank of Montreal ($BMO)
Amount Purchased: $66K - $165K
Company: National Bank of Canada ($NTIOF)
Amount Purchased: $65K - $150K
Sells
Kevin Hern (R)
Company: Texas Instruments ($TXN)
Amount Sold: $500K - $1M
Company: Accenture ($ACN)
Amount Sold: $250K - $500K
Company: ICON ($ICLR)
Amount Sold: $100K - $250K
Major Trades Published 4/6 - 4/10
Buys
Oscar Health ($OSCR)
Insider: Mark Bertolini (CEO)
# of Shares Purchased: 1,000,000
$ Amount: $11,920,000
SEC Forms: [1]
Nike ($NKE)
Sells
CoreWeave ($CRWV)
Insider: Brian Venturo (Chief Strategy Officer)
# of Shares Sold: 1,186,747
$ Amount: $41,608,926
SEC Forms: [1]
Cloudflare ($NET)
Insider: Matthew Prince (CEO)
# of Shares Sold: 156,493
$ Amount: $33,167,769
SEC Forms: [1]
Robinhood ($HOOD)
Insider: Vladimir Tenev (CEO)
# of Shares Sold: 375,000
$ Amount: $26,187,704
SEC Forms: [1]
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