📊 U.S. Debt Insane Growth

Happy Sunday!

Hope you're all having an incredible 4th of July weekend.

This past week was packed with job data, here’s a quick breakdown of what mattered and why it does:

• Job Openings (Good)

  • On Tuesday, job openings unexpectedly rose to 7.77M in May, up from 7.4M in April. This suggests continued strength in labor demand.

• ADP Private Employment (Bad)

  • On Wednesday, private employers cut 33,000 jobs in June, well below the 100,000 gain expected. A surprising drop that points to softness in private-sector hiring.

• Initial Jobless Claims (Good)

  • On Thursday, weekly jobless claims came in at 233,000, lower than the 240,000 expected. Fewer claims signal a stable labor market.

• Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (Good)

  • And lastly, also on Thursday, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, beating the 110,000 estimate.

  • The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%, better than the 4.3% forecast.

  • Both point to resilience in the broader jobs market.

Taken together, the data paints a mixed but slightly positive picture, solid job growth and demand, with a few signs of private-sector caution.

Some key data bites from this week that you should know:

• Morningstar curated a list of 10 undervalued high-quality stocks.

• Nvidia insiders have sold $1B in shares over the last year.

• Jeff Bezos sold $737M worth of Amazon stock.

• Microsoft will cut 9,000 employees, or roughly 4% of its workforce.

• JPMorgan increased dividend and approved $50B buyback.

• Oracle signed a cloud deal that will add $30B in annual revenue.

• Tesla vehicle deliveries fell 14% to 384,000 in Q2.

• Apple, Alphabet, and Tesla have been a 120 point drag on the S&P 500.

• iPhone sales in China grew for the first time in 2 years.

• Amazon deployed its one millionth robot in its operations.

• Harvard’s endowment had a 39% exposure to private equity in 2024.

• Home Depot acquired building products distributor GMS for $4.3B.

• London IPOs hit a 28-year low.

In today’s newsletter:

• 🎨 Figma Files For IPO

• 💸 U.S. Debt Insane Growth

• 👨‍💼 Founders Beat The Market

• 🐶 Datadog Joins The S&P 500

• ❌ Big Companies Not In The S&P 500

Let’s jump right in.

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The IPO market continues to heat up.

Design software company Figma has officially filed to go public.

• This comes after its $20B acquisition deal with Adobe fell through, earning Figma a $1B breakup fee.

Now, its S-1 filing offers a deeper look into just how embedded Figma is in the enterprise world.

• 95% of Forbes 500 companies use its platform, it has 13M monthly active users, and revenue is growing 46% YoY.

Figma plans to raise $1.5B and list on the New York Stock Exchange, though pricing details and the exact date are still pending.

On July 4th, President Donald Trump signed the Big Beautiful Bill, his sweeping tax and spending package.

• The bill makes the 2017 tax cuts permanent and expands deductions for state and local taxes.

• It also includes new tax breaks for tip income, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits.

• On the other side, the legislation reduces spending on Medicaid and food stamps, modifies federal student loan programs, and scales back clean energy tax credits.

• Additionally, it allocates $350B toward his border and national security initiatives.

A more thorough breakdown of what’s included can be viewed here.

According to Yale research, the bill will result in a 2.9% income decline for the bottom quintile of earners, while boosting income for the top 1% by 1.9%.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the legislation will add $3.3T to the federal deficit over the next decade.

In fiscal year 2025, the U.S. posted a $1.36T deficit and debt-to-GDP now stands at 121%.

Since 1993, U.S. federal debt has grown from $4.4T under Clinton to $37T today, just months into Trump’s second term.

• The increase reflects decades of policy decisions across both parties, ranging from tax cuts and new spending to responses to the financial crisis, COVID-19, and rising interest costs.

• While debt rose under every president, it's overly simplistic to assign full responsibility to any one administration.

Still, there’s no denying the U.S. faces serious long-term risks if deficits, debt levels, and slowing growth remain unaddressed.

Founder-led companies tend to outperform, and the reason is simple.

• When the person who built the company is still running it, decisions are made with long-term conviction, not short-term optics.

There's more skin in the game, more care in execution, and a deeper sense of purpose.

• It’s no coincidence that companies like Nvidia, Axon, and MercadoLibre have left the S&P 500’s 10Y performance far behind.

The founder’s mindset isn’t just different, it’s often a competitive advantage.

Datadog let out a loud bark this week.

Shares jumped 15% on Thursday after news broke that the software company will be added to the S&P 500, replacing Juniper Networks.

• To qualify for the index, companies must meet criteria like sustained profitability and a minimum market cap of $22.7B.

Datadog now joins the index with a $54B market cap, $2.7B in 2024 revenue, and a customer base of 30,000, marking a major milestone in its growth story.

Datadog’s surge highlights just how bullish investors get when a company is added to a major index.

• Inclusion in the S&P 500 triggers automatic buying from index funds and ETFs, boosting demand, liquidity, and visibility.

Several companies are large enough to meet the S&P’s market cap threshold, and others meet all inclusion criteria but have yet to be added.

• Notable names still waiting on the sidelines include AppLovin, MicroStrategy, and Robinhood.

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Earning Calendar for the Month of July:

This upcoming month is going to be huge!

EarningsHub helps me stay on top of earnings, forecasts, and AI-powered call recaps.

It’s free, and perfect if you want to track every major company reporting.

Buys

• Cleo Fields (D)

  • Company: Nvidia ($NVDA)

    • Amount Purchased: $1.78M - $6.8M

  • Company: Amazon ($AMZN)

    • Amount Purchased: $650K - $1.6M

  • Company: Apple ($AAPL)

    • Amount Purchased: $469K - $1.16M

  • Company: Microsoft ($MSFT)

    • Amount Purchased: $301K - $615K

  • Company: Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM)

    • Amount Purchased: $100K - $250K

Sells

• Virginia Foxx (R)

  • Company: Energy Transfer ($ET)

    • Amount Sold: $15K - $50K

Buys

• Asana ($ASAN)

  • Insider: Dustin Moskovitz (President, CEO, & Chair)

    • # of Shares Purchased: 450,000

    • $ Amount: $6,117,817

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• Welltower ($WELL)

  • Insider: Andrew Gundlach (Director)

    • # of Shares Purchased: 20,000

    • $ Amount: $3,029,200

    • SEC Forms: [1]

Sells

• Robinhood ($HOOD)

  • Insider: Vladimir Tenev (CEO)

    • # of Shares Sold: 750,000

    • $ Amount: $69,954,825

    • SEC Forms: [1]

• Amazon ($AMZN)

  • Insider: Jeffrey Bezos (Executive Chair)

    • # of Shares Sold: 224,926

    • $ Amount: $50,284,187

    • SEC Forms: [1]

🤝 Review of the Week